The Myth of the Gut Feel Decision Maker

What is meant by the term "gut feel decision?" Is this some form of decision making completely separate from other forms? We never have all the information we need to make a decision. At some point, we summon our courage and move forward. Gut feel decision making exists on the same continuum as any other decision process. It is a decision made with very little information, but requiring somewhat more courage. Generally, people who make these decisions are keenly aware of the cost of not deciding. They understand the need to move forward. They may be willing to absorb the cost of changing direction when new information becomes available. They know that larger success is built upon a series of smaller successes and failures.

Unfortunately, this style of decision making looks very similar to hubris. We occasionally see decision makers who have been successful in a previous endeavor, and are using the confidence gained by their experience irrationally. Rather than evaluate their current alternatives as carefully as time permits, they recall a previous experience where they made the right call under duress. These people have concluded that they have a knack for making tough decisions, and plunge forward.

Externally, hubristic decision making looks very similar to a competent decision making process. Even if a competent decision maker claims that a gut feel decision is being made, when pressed, they will be able to explain their rationale. A hubristic decision maker can not rationally explain their decision.